TRANSCRIPT
Jocelyn Jovene: Hello and welcome to Morningstar Investment Conference in Paris. I'm delighted to welcome Andrew Balls, who is the Global Head of Fixed Income at PIMCO.
Andrew, thanks for being here.
Andrew Balls: Thanks for having me.
Jovene: So, the first question was about central banks. There's a lot of impact of central banks right now in the market. Do you think that their actions are enough in terms of impact of growth outlook?
Balls: So, I think you're getting to the point where you're seeing significantly diminishing returns for central bank actions. So, Japan, I think, this is pretty clear and the BOJ actually has raised questions itself about how effective the policy is. The ECB succeeded in stabilizing European markets in terms of the sovereign crisis but bringing about significantly different growth and particularly inflation outcomes is going to be difficult.
And then tools, when you get stretched into tools such as negative yields, the balance to costs versus the benefits, we think probably the costs are going to outweigh any benefits because of the impact on the banking sector, the insurance sector. So, I think you're getting to the limits of central bank policy effectiveness.
We expect pretty stable markets over the next 6 to 12 months. You still have substantial support. In the case of the U.S., the central bank tightening policy more slowly is something which will be a supportive factor for credit markets potentially. But we do think if you look out over the next few years, there is a problem that if we do have a downturn in Europe or the U.S., you're starting off from a difficult point. Central banks don't really have a lot of tools left we think for further intervention.
Jovene: Do you think that fiscal policy can then take over from central banks?
Balls: So, I think that's logical. If you look at the U.S. election, the U.S. election is clearly a big source of uncertainty with Donald Trump one of the candidates. But in the case of both candidates, I think you could see a little bit of fiscal stimulus. And then in the event of a significant slowdown in the U.S., yes, you would expect fiscal policy. In the U.K., given the Brexit uncertainties, you may certainly see a fiscal response. The European case, partly because of politics, partly because of some of the countries being in more stretched fiscal positions, is probably a bigger doubt. So, in the event of a slowdown, yes, the U.S. and the U.K. you would expect fiscal policy beyond those countries as well, but the Eurozone case maybe a more challenging one. So, reason to be a little bit cautious on European markets. If we do have another slowdown recession, the policy response is going to be a difficult one.
Jovene: And where in this current environment do you see the best opportunities, the best risk/rewards in terms of investment opportunities?
Balls: So, we use our theme of the world being stable but not secure, so there's medium-term risks; but at the same time, we expect cyclical stability. We think it still makes sense to be overweight credit. European credit looks okay. U.S. credit looks probably a little bit more attractive. We like private label mortgages, asset-backed securities. Particularly, in the U.S., we see them as one of the best sources of spread in the global fixed income markets. As part of an overall theme of having positive income, generating positive income in terms of the fixed income portfolios, emerging markets are well-constructive. There are some good opportunities there selectively country-by-country, asset class-by-asset class. But again, in terms of looking for safe spread and income generation, they've got a role to play as well.
Jovene: Okay. Thanks a lot for your time.
Balls: Thank you very much.
Jovene: For Morningstar, I'm Jocelyn Jovene. Thanks for watching.
